Predicting a Surge in Pandemic-Induced Student Transfers: Will It Happen?

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed virtually everything we do in higher education. Some of its effects will continue to be felt for several years, while others will change us in permanent ways. The abrupt and total move to online instruction in spring 2020 will likely result in an increased online presence among our institutions’ course offerings. Some quarters have expressed the hope that higher education will move online more exclusively, but there will be a strong push to return to primarily in-person instruction post-COVID. The ultimate permanent change for some of our colleges and universities will be their disappearance from the higher education landscape. This will be the fate primarily of institutions that were on unstable fiscal ground (with eroding enrollments and tuition discounting at play) before the pandemic and that now are overwhelmed by the costs and lost revenues resulting from the pandemic as well as precipitously low enrollments. Some have already closed their doors, and others will likely soon follow.